Brexit - Towards the Rainbow's End in Norfolk

Brexit – Towards the Rainbow’s End

We knew it would likely be thus from various indications noted last year (not least the flagpole with the Union Jack on the lawn). Therefore, when on Referendum Day we were greeted by our B&B host wearing two identical chest badges – an “EU” with a diagonal line struck through – we grimaced politely and said nothing. More lip biting as he ran through a “health and safety” patter, with the aside that he hoped to bin all that nonsense tomorrow.

At (the very good) breakfast on the Glorious 24^th, he remarked on the sun coming out, blessing the first day of freedom. Again we grimaced politely and made conversation about Norfolk walking.

I suspect he knew we were of, or on the fringes of, the “metropolitan elite”, against the perceived dominance of which the Leave vote is said to have been partly aimed. We were probably being goaded a bit; but he has a decent B&B business to run, so not too far.

We were staying on the North Norfolk coast. Possibly the Leave vote there was motivated by a mixture of the sufferings of fishermen, a Nelsonian sense of Nation (Nelson was a local man), and the aforesaid resentment of the colonisation, permanent or temporary, of North Norfolk by well-off metropolitans.

The town is not a place with a very high migrant population, although there are numerous migrants in other parts of East Anglia.

Our landlord celebrated in a glum sort of way – emotional exuberance is definitely not his style. No celebration within the annual walking group. We (20 or so) had gathered for the first meal of the weekend on Thursday evening, with some arriving late from their last shift of Remain canvassing (very effective in London..). The next morning we, or most of us, assembled in a state of shock.

Nearly all of us had voted Remain. I think this was because we found it easy to dismiss the meretricious claims offered by the Leave campaigners, Gove and Johnson (no time of day being given to the preposterous and unpleasant Farage) and, fundamentally, could not see any clear national reason for the referendum question being proposed. If the question had not been asked, we wouldn’t have noticed its absence. The question was an irritation. Also, we were, on the whole, of those who feel comfortable with the idea, or even the ideal, of a European community (even if capitalised Community has very many faults). We are glad Europeans, and it shocked us to find out that so may feel otherwise.

“Nearly all” had voted Remain. But there was couple, related to one of the group, who joined us temporarily. They had voted Leave “to get our country back”. Dark mutterings ensued. One woman whispered, “I nearly punched her”. One or two argued fruitlessly – and, by now, pointlessly.

“Take back our country” or “take back control” seem to be the most often proffered reasons for Leave votes. The “take back” mantra covers, at its crudest, straightforward ant-migrant bias; which in turn covers genuine concerns about strained services, housing, education and health, but also covers straightforward xenophobia and racism. As the author John Lanchester puts it in the London Review of Books (28^th July): “All racists who voted, voted Leave”.

Such people were encouraged, even to some extent legitimised, by the nastier features of the Leave campaign. They Made a Difference, if not The Difference, to the result. That’s one reason why many Remain voters feel a lot of despair and, to some extent, contempt.

“Getting back” also signifies Leavers’ constitutional objection to an overmighty, undemocratic and dysfunctional EU. This is one aspect of the sovereignty objection (the other aspect is rejection of “rule from Brussels”, however benign, as a matter of ideological principle, and damn the consequences).

Remainers acknowledge the force of the former reason, countering that the UK should promote reform from within the EU and retain the benefits of membership. Of course, the nature of those benefits was and is a matter of dispute.

Of the Brexit options being bandied about, there appear to be two, or two and a half leaders.

Minimal Brexit (otherwise, “Brexit-lite”). This, essentially referendum-cheating, option, sees the UK dropping out of the EU but only as far (a few metres away) as the European Economic Area, along with a handful of other countries, such as Norway. There, we would still be in the single market (except for agriculture and fisheries). But we would still have to accept “free movement” – ie migration (subject to a proviso mentioned below).

Remainers would, of course support this option, as would many “soft” or “accidental” Leavers (the ones who didn’t expect or really want to win). This option might very well command a majority among those who voted in the Referendum.

Supporters might even hope to sell the option to Leavers who voted for control of migration by pointing to Article 112 of the EEA Treaty. This says:

1.    If serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a Contracting Party may unilaterally take appropriate measures…

2.    Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary to remedy the situation…

There are various consultation and monitoring conditions to be observed.

It is not at all clear that these provisions would hand back to the UK ongoing control of its borders. The UK can only operate this emergency brake in respect of seriously affected “sectors” or “regions” (and there would be a lot of dispute about the meanings of these terms) and then only temporarily. But in theory the right gives more control than exists at present.

Switzerland has a deal which looks a bit like the EEA one – except that if it in any way tries to curtail free movement, the whole deal collapses. Not a good precedent.

BrexitMax starts from, or includes the principle, or finger jabbing demand, that the UK should control its borders and governance absolutely. This is the position, one assumes, that a majority of Leavers supports, for now. Relations with the world, including the EU, will be tricky. But who can tell? It is all in the uncertain future and, besides, anyone, or no one, can be an “expert”.

One thing is fairly certain. BrexitMini , favoured by Remainers, Brexit-regretters and Brexit-liters (I don’t understand their position) will come under furious assault from the die-hards of BrexitMax. As will do, vice versa, the BrexitMax option from what I suspect is the new majority.

 We are guaranteed social and political fissures.

And I haven’t mentioned the Labour Party.

Or the possibility that the UK Parliament, not being bound by the Referendum result (it was advisory only) votes to ignore it.

July 2016